{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "data_version": "2026.10.22.1",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-22T21:14:39Z",
  "taxonomy_version": "1.1",
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "kind": "calibration_record",
      "scored": false,
      "forecaster": null,
      "logged": null,
      "title": "Metaplanet: the frozen rule fires on the 2022-12-28 disclosure",
      "probability": null,
      "resolve_by": null,
      "resolution_criteria": null,
      "status": "resolved",
      "outcome": "PASS",
      "resolved": "2026-09-11",
      "source_page": "/predictions.html"
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "kind": "calibration_record",
      "scored": false,
      "forecaster": null,
      "logged": "2026-09-11",
      "title": "The frozen rule will return SILENT on both Strategy and Strive",
      "probability": null,
      "resolve_by": null,
      "resolution_criteria": null,
      "status": "resolved",
      "outcome": "CORRECT",
      "resolved": "2026-09-11",
      "source_page": "/predictions.html"
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "kind": "prediction",
      "scored": true,
      "forecaster": "Mundane Tools",
      "logged": "2026-09-12",
      "title": "Eyes-on read of the Dec 28, 2022 TDnet filing will confirm all three trigger facts",
      "probability": 0.85,
      "resolve_by": "2026-09-30",
      "resolution_criteria": "the PDF is read directly; each of the three facts is confirmed or denied individually; any material discrepancy on any fact resolves the prediction WRONG.",
      "status": "open",
      "outcome": null,
      "resolved": null,
      "source_page": "/predictions.html"
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "kind": "prediction",
      "scored": true,
      "forecaster": "Mundane Tools",
      "logged": "2026-09-12",
      "title": "At least 8 of the next 10 treasury companies screened will return SILENT under the frozen v1 rule",
      "probability": 0.75,
      "resolve_by": "when ten new screens complete, or 2027-03-12 , whichever comes first",
      "resolution_criteria": "count SILENT vs FIRES across the next ten newly screened companies; 8+ silent resolves CORRECT; 7 or fewer resolves WRONG (and the threshold gets recalibrated as v2). OPEN NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Everything here is opinion based on public filings. Treasury-company securities are volatile and complex; do your own diligence or talk to a professional. Mundane Tools is a pseudonymous publishing project.",
      "status": "open",
      "outcome": null,
      "resolved": null,
      "source_page": "/predictions.html"
    }
  ]
}